국가연구개발성과
논문 (학술지)
SWAT 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 만경강 유역에서의 수문 및 수질 영향 평가
| 등록번호 | RPMS-2019-0090802339 | SCI 구분
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※구분 : SCI(SCIE포함), 비SCI |
비SCI |
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| 저자명 (주·공동저자) | 김동현 ; 황세운; 장태일; 소현철 ※ 과제 참여정보와 일치하는 연구자 상세정보로 정확하지 않을 수 있습니다. 동일저자 논문보기 |
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| 논문구분 | 국내전문학술지 | 학술지명 | 한국농공학회논문집 |
| ISSN | 1738-3692 | 학술지 출판일자 | - |
| 학술지 볼륨번호 | 60 | 논문페이지 | 83 ~ 96 |
| 학술지 임팩트팩터 | 0.5278 | 기여율 | 100 % |
| DOI | 10.5389/KSAE.2018.60.6.083 | ||
| 초록 | The objective of this study was to estimate the climate change impact on water quantity and quality to Saemanguem watershed using SWAT (Soil and water assessment tool) model. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed data from 2008 to 2017 for the study watershed. The R2 (Determination coefficient), RMSE (Root mean square error), and NSE (Nash-sutcliffe efficiency coefficient) were used to evaluate the model performance. RCP scenario data were produced from 10 GCM (General circulation model) and all relevant grid data including the major observation points (Gusan, Jeonju, Buan, Jeongeup) were extracted. The systematic error evaluation of the GCM model outputs was performed as well. They showed various variations based on analysis of future climate change effects. In future periods, the MIROC5 model showed the maximum values and the CMCC-CM model presented the minimum values in the climate data. Increasing rainfall amount was from 180mm to 250mm and increasing temperature value ranged from 1.7 to 5.9℃, respectively, compared with the baseline (2006~2017) in 10 GCM model outputs. The future 2030s and 2070s runoff showed increasing rate of 16 ~ 29% under future climate data. The future rate of change for T-N (Total nitrogen) and T-P (Total phosphorus) loads presented from –26 to +0.13% and from +5 to 47%, respectively. The hydrologic cycle and water quality from the Saemanguem headwater were very sensitive to projected climate change scenarios so that GCM model should be carefully selected for the purpose of use and the tendency analysis of GCM model are needed if necessary. | ||
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